There have been many reports in the media about the performance of the property market — more opinion than fact. Over the years you’ve been reading my updates, you know me well enough to know that I like the facts.
There are some key drivers in any property market: employment levels, net migration, crowding, property sale volumes, construction, affordability, rents, and number of days to sell property to name a few. All of these remain at relatively stable levels.
The first home buyer market is certainly buoyant (new mortgage registrations rose from 24.8% to 26.4% last month) with lenders easing up on restrictions along with attractive interest rates — with no predictions of tightening anytime soon.
Changes to LVR's
The RBNZ Financial Stability Report released on Wednesday the RB noted the slowing in mortgage lending growth and house price inflation. In response they have cut the minimum deposit requirement for investors from 35% to 30% (having cut it from 40% a year ago). And banks may now have up to 20% of their lending to owner occupiers at less than 20% deposit. This had been 15% from the earlier 10% percentage of volume limit.
Will these changes affect property values?
Not really. At least, they certainly won’t lead to large rises in house prices, but the changes should bring further stability to the market. Remember when they imposed the changes as the market was rising? They were never to bring house prices down, they were just to slow the growth and stabilise the market. Now it’s the reverse.
The sellers market has passed (2 years ago), but the balanced market environment we are presented with is a healthy one. Values remain relatively stable along with stock levels and sales volumes. I see this property climate remaining similar for a few years yet.
The property market in Auckland remains balanced and stable with homes turning over at a relatively slower rate in recent months as listings remain relatively high.
We are finding homes are taking a while longer to sell given the current stock levels, however, there is still a good percentage of homes selling each month and values are reasonably consistent. Sellers are finding that in a balanced market, prices need to be competitive from the get-go and aligned with current market conditions and buyer activity if they are to sell. The silver lining to that, of course, is that prices are relative; so, if you're buying and selling in Auckland in the same market, it balances out.
It's also worth noting that in Auckland over the past 20 years, property prices have nearly doubled every 10 years, as the median 10 year rise is 96% which you can see in the chart below (this data is using REINZ House Price Index). When you compare this to all of NZ, Auckland has sustained a relatively consistent higher 10 year growth in prices that are well ahead of the NZ total at 88%.
Regardless of the rates of values and turn over, the balance between demand and supply always needs to be considered in assessing market activity and property values.
Source
Figures presented by CoreLogic showed that the more expensive the property, the more likely it was to sell at a lower price compared to its CV.
In the past three months, homes with CVs higher than $1 million have typically been selling for prices 1–4% below their CV. Mid-priced homes with CVs between $800,000–$1M have typically been selling for prices close to their council value.
Homes with CVs below $650,000 are still selling for prices as high as 9% above their CV.So how is a CV calculated exactly?Property Institute of New Zealand Chief Executive, Ashley Church, says that the valuations are a ‘guesstimate’ rather than an accurate indicator of what a home is actually worth. “CVs are conducted once every 3 years and they’re a ‘snapshot’ of the approximate value of any given property at that moment in time.
They shouldn’t be regarded as an exact measure of the value of a home — and they’re certainly not intended to provide an ongoing price guide.”The methodology for a Council Valuation is very different to a formal valuation. A CV is a blunt instrument. It’s a computer based assessment of the value of your home based on what other homes in your area have sold for; whereas a formal Registered Valuation is conducted onsite and takes account of the condition of your home, any renovations you might have made, whether you have a pool, the number of bedrooms you might have, the condition of your home — all of the things that make it unique.
Mr Church says that the question of the value of your home has also been further confused by the recent proliferation of ‘free’ online home valuation services. “There are a couple of paid services that are getting much better at remote assessment – but the free ones are generally about as effective as reading tealeaves or chicken entrails and their advice should be treated with a grain of salt.”